Uta Arad 0–3 CS Luceafarul Oradea: Result & Stats

Uta Arad

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

CS Luceafarul Oradea

3/16/2019

Liga II · Round 25Stadionul Motorul (Arad)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Uta Arad61%

×Draw21%

CS Luceafarul Oradea18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Uta AradExpected goals in this matchCS Luceafarul Oradea

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.10

1.04

Uta Arad

2.10

CS Luceafarul Oradea

1.04

Uta Arad creates 102% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 19 away

1.94

creates per match

0.84

1.24

allows per match

2.26

creates per match

Uta Arad

1.94

CS Luceafarul Oradea

0.84

allows per match

Uta Arad

1.24

CS Luceafarul Oradea

2.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Uta Arad+0.00on par

CS Luceafarul Oradea+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Uta Arad ↓

CS Luceafarul Oradea →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Uta Arad or draw

82%

Uta Arad or CS Luceafarul Oradea

79%

Draw or CS Luceafarul Oradea

39%

Winning margin

Uta Arad wins by 2+

38%

CS Luceafarul Oradea wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Uta Arad 1+ goals

88%

Uta Arad 2+ goals

62%

Uta Arad 3+ goals

35%

CS Luceafarul Oradea 1+ goals

65%

CS Luceafarul Oradea 2+ goals

28%

CS Luceafarul Oradea 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Uta Arad (draw refunded)

77%

CS Luceafarul Oradea (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Uta Arad at home — creates 1.94, concedes 1.24 · 33 matches

CS Luceafarul Oradea away — creates 0.84, concedes 2.26 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Uta Arad attack 1.94 + CS Luceafarul Oradea defence 2.26 → ÷2 → 2.10

CS Luceafarul Oradea attack 0.84 + Uta Arad defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Uta Arad scores more

61%

level

21%

CS Luceafarul Oradea scores more

18%

Uta Arad at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Uta Arad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff