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Uta Arad vs ACS Poli Timisoara — Liga II 2018

Uta Arad
Uta Arad
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
ACS Poli Timisoara
ACS Poli Timisoara
3/9/2019Liga IILiga II · Round 24Stadionul Motorul (Arad)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Uta Arad62%
×Draw21%
ACS Poli Timisoara17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Uta Arad
1.97
ACS Poli Timisoara
0.91

Uta Arad creates 116% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 19 away

creates per match

Uta Arad
1.94
ACS Poli Timisoara
0.58

allows per match

Uta Arad
1.24
ACS Poli Timisoara
2.00

finishing

Uta Arad+0.00on par
ACS Poli Timisoara+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Uta Arad ↓

ACS Poli Timisoara →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Uta Arad or draw
83%
Uta Arad or ACS Poli Timisoara
79%
Draw or ACS Poli Timisoara
38%

Winning margin

Uta Arad wins by 2+
37%
ACS Poli Timisoara wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Uta Arad 1+ goals
86%
Uta Arad 2+ goals
58%
Uta Arad 3+ goals
31%
ACS Poli Timisoara 1+ goals
60%
ACS Poli Timisoara 2+ goals
23%
ACS Poli Timisoara 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Uta Arad (draw refunded)
79%
ACS Poli Timisoara (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Uta Arad at home — creates 1.94, concedes 1.24 · 33 matches

ACS Poli Timisoara away — creates 0.58, concedes 2.00 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Uta Arad attack 1.94 + ACS Poli Timisoara defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.97

ACS Poli Timisoara attack 0.58 + Uta Arad defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Uta Arad scores more
62%
level
21%
ACS Poli Timisoara scores more
17%

Uta Arad at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Uta Arad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Uta Arad vs ACS Poli Timisoara

Uta Arad beat ACS Poli Timisoara 2-1 in Liga II on March 9, 2019.

The match was played at Stadionul Motorul (Arad).