Ustrem Donchevo 4–2 Topoli: Result & Stats

Ustrem Donchevo

FT

4 – 2

Topoli

7/12/2020

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Ustrem Donchevo67%

×Draw15%

Topoli18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ustrem DonchevoExpected goals in this matchTopoli

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.50

1.83

Ustrem Donchevo

3.50

Topoli

1.83

Ustrem Donchevo creates 91% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

4.00

creates per match

1.67

2.00

allows per match

3.00

creates per match

Ustrem Donchevo

4.00

Topoli

1.67

allows per match

Ustrem Donchevo

2.00

Topoli

3.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ustrem Donchevo+0.00on par

Topoli+0.00on par

Total goals

Over89
Under11

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes81
No19

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ustrem Donchevo ↓

Topoli →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–11%

0–21%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–02%

1–13%

1–23%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–17%

3–26%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–03%

4–16%

4–25%

4–33%

4–42%

Most likely 3–1 (7%) · grid covers 75% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

97%3%2.5

89%11%3.5

76%24%4.5

59%41%

Double chance

Ustrem Donchevo or draw

82%

Ustrem Donchevo or Topoli

85%

Draw or Topoli

33%

Winning margin

Ustrem Donchevo wins by 2+

49%

Topoli wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Ustrem Donchevo 1+ goals

97%

Ustrem Donchevo 2+ goals

85%

Ustrem Donchevo 3+ goals

66%

Topoli 1+ goals

84%

Topoli 2+ goals

54%

Topoli 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Ustrem Donchevo (draw refunded)

79%

Topoli (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

78%

Both score & under 3

3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ustrem Donchevo at home — creates 4.00, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

Topoli away — creates 1.67, concedes 3.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ustrem Donchevo attack 4.00 + Topoli defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 3.50

Topoli attack 1.67 + Ustrem Donchevo defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Ustrem Donchevo scores more

67%

level

15%

Topoli scores more

18%

Ustrem Donchevo at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Ustrem Donchevo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff