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Ustrem Donchevo vs Sportist G.Toshevo — Third League - Northeast 2018

Ustrem Donchevo
Ustrem Donchevo
FT
2 – 2
Sportist G.Toshevo
Sportist G.Toshevo
12/1/2021Third League - NortheastThird League - Northeast · North-East - 9Stadion Sgurta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Ustrem Donchevo72%
×Draw15%
Sportist G.Toshevo13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ustrem Donchevo
2.97
Sportist G.Toshevo
1.23

Ustrem Donchevo creates 141% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 40 away

creates per match

Ustrem Donchevo
1.81
Sportist G.Toshevo
0.75

allows per match

Ustrem Donchevo
1.72
Sportist G.Toshevo
4.13

finishing

Ustrem Donchevo+0.00on par
Sportist G.Toshevo+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ustrem Donchevo ↓

Sportist G.Toshevo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–16%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–16%
4–24%
4–32%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
59%41%4.5
39%61%

Double chance

Ustrem Donchevo or draw
87%
Ustrem Donchevo or Sportist G.Toshevo
85%
Draw or Sportist G.Toshevo
28%

Winning margin

Ustrem Donchevo wins by 2+
52%
Sportist G.Toshevo wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Ustrem Donchevo 1+ goals
95%
Ustrem Donchevo 2+ goals
79%
Ustrem Donchevo 3+ goals
56%
Sportist G.Toshevo 1+ goals
71%
Sportist G.Toshevo 2+ goals
35%
Sportist G.Toshevo 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Ustrem Donchevo (draw refunded)
84%
Sportist G.Toshevo (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ustrem Donchevo at home — creates 1.81, concedes 1.72 · 102 matches

Sportist G.Toshevo away — creates 0.75, concedes 4.13 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ustrem Donchevo attack 1.81 + Sportist G.Toshevo defence 4.13 → ÷2 → 2.97

Sportist G.Toshevo attack 0.75 + Ustrem Donchevo defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Ustrem Donchevo scores more
72%
level
15%
Sportist G.Toshevo scores more
13%

Ustrem Donchevo at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Ustrem Donchevo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Northeast: Ustrem Donchevo 2–2 Sportist G.Toshevo

Ustrem Donchevo and Sportist G.Toshevo drew 2-2 in Third League - Northeast on December 1, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Sgurta in Dobrich.