Ustrem Donchevo 2–1 Lokomotiv Ruse: Result & Stats

Ustrem Donchevo

FT

2 – 1

Lokomotiv Ruse

10/3/2021

Third League - Northeast · North-East - 7Stadion Donchevo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Ustrem Donchevo59%

×Draw20%

Lokomotiv Ruse21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ustrem DonchevoExpected goals in this matchLokomotiv Ruse

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.26

1.29

Ustrem Donchevo

2.26

Lokomotiv Ruse

1.29

Ustrem Donchevo creates 75% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 52 away

1.81

creates per match

0.87

1.72

allows per match

2.71

creates per match

Ustrem Donchevo

1.81

Lokomotiv Ruse

0.87

allows per match

Ustrem Donchevo

1.72

Lokomotiv Ruse

2.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ustrem Donchevo+0.00on par

Lokomotiv Ruse+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ustrem Donchevo ↓

Lokomotiv Ruse →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Ustrem Donchevo or draw

79%

Ustrem Donchevo or Lokomotiv Ruse

80%

Draw or Lokomotiv Ruse

41%

Winning margin

Ustrem Donchevo wins by 2+

37%

Lokomotiv Ruse wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Ustrem Donchevo 1+ goals

89%

Ustrem Donchevo 2+ goals

66%

Ustrem Donchevo 3+ goals

39%

Lokomotiv Ruse 1+ goals

72%

Lokomotiv Ruse 2+ goals

37%

Lokomotiv Ruse 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Ustrem Donchevo (draw refunded)

74%

Lokomotiv Ruse (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ustrem Donchevo at home — creates 1.81, concedes 1.72 · 102 matches

Lokomotiv Ruse away — creates 0.87, concedes 2.71 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ustrem Donchevo attack 1.81 + Lokomotiv Ruse defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 2.26

Lokomotiv Ruse attack 0.87 + Ustrem Donchevo defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Ustrem Donchevo scores more

59%

level

20%

Lokomotiv Ruse scores more

21%

Ustrem Donchevo at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Ustrem Donchevo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff