Lokomotiv Ruse 2–1 Ustrem Donchevo: Result & Stats

Lokomotiv Ruse

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Ustrem Donchevo

4/27/2024

Third League - Northeast · Northeast - 25Stadion Lokomotiv

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Lokomotiv Ruse40%

×Draw23%

Ustrem Donchevo37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lokomotiv RuseExpected goals in this matchUstrem Donchevo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

1.67

Lokomotiv Ruse

1.75

Ustrem Donchevo

1.67

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 52 home / 105 away

0.88

creates per match

1.24

2.10

allows per match

2.62

creates per match

Lokomotiv Ruse

0.88

Ustrem Donchevo

1.24

allows per match

Lokomotiv Ruse

2.10

Ustrem Donchevo

2.62

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lokomotiv Ruse+0.00on par

Ustrem Donchevo+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lokomotiv Ruse ↓

Ustrem Donchevo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Lokomotiv Ruse or draw

63%

Lokomotiv Ruse or Ustrem Donchevo

77%

Draw or Ustrem Donchevo

60%

Winning margin

Lokomotiv Ruse wins by 2+

21%

Ustrem Donchevo wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Lokomotiv Ruse 1+ goals

83%

Lokomotiv Ruse 2+ goals

52%

Lokomotiv Ruse 3+ goals

25%

Ustrem Donchevo 1+ goals

81%

Ustrem Donchevo 2+ goals

50%

Ustrem Donchevo 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Lokomotiv Ruse (draw refunded)

52%

Ustrem Donchevo (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lokomotiv Ruse at home — creates 0.88, concedes 2.10 · 52 matches

Ustrem Donchevo away — creates 1.24, concedes 2.62 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lokomotiv Ruse attack 0.88 + Ustrem Donchevo defence 2.62 → ÷2 → 1.75

Ustrem Donchevo attack 1.24 + Lokomotiv Ruse defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Lokomotiv Ruse scores more

40%

level

23%

Ustrem Donchevo scores more

37%

Lokomotiv Ruse at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Lokomotiv Ruse will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff