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Ustrem Donchevo vs Dunav ot Ruse II — Third League - Northeast 2018

Ustrem Donchevo
Ustrem Donchevo
FT
1 – 1
Dunav ot Ruse II
Dunav ot Ruse II
4/9/2023Third League - NortheastThird League - Northeast · Northeast - 23Stadion Donchevo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Ustrem Donchevo62%
×Draw19%
Dunav ot Ruse II19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ustrem Donchevo
2.33
Dunav ot Ruse II
1.23

Ustrem Donchevo creates 89% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 27 away

creates per match

Ustrem Donchevo
1.81
Dunav ot Ruse II
0.74

allows per match

Ustrem Donchevo
1.72
Dunav ot Ruse II
2.85

finishing

Ustrem Donchevo+0.00on par
Dunav ot Ruse II+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ustrem Donchevo ↓

Dunav ot Ruse II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Ustrem Donchevo or draw
81%
Ustrem Donchevo or Dunav ot Ruse II
81%
Draw or Dunav ot Ruse II
38%

Winning margin

Ustrem Donchevo wins by 2+
39%
Dunav ot Ruse II wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Ustrem Donchevo 1+ goals
90%
Ustrem Donchevo 2+ goals
67%
Ustrem Donchevo 3+ goals
41%
Dunav ot Ruse II 1+ goals
71%
Dunav ot Ruse II 2+ goals
35%
Dunav ot Ruse II 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Ustrem Donchevo (draw refunded)
76%
Dunav ot Ruse II (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ustrem Donchevo at home — creates 1.81, concedes 1.72 · 102 matches

Dunav ot Ruse II away — creates 0.74, concedes 2.85 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ustrem Donchevo attack 1.81 + Dunav ot Ruse II defence 2.85 → ÷2 → 2.33

Dunav ot Ruse II attack 0.74 + Ustrem Donchevo defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Ustrem Donchevo scores more
62%
level
19%
Dunav ot Ruse II scores more
19%

Ustrem Donchevo at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Ustrem Donchevo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ustrem Donchevo vs Dunav ot Ruse II

Ustrem Donchevo and Dunav ot Ruse II drew 1-1 in Third League - Northeast on April 9, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Donchevo in Donchevo.