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Ustrem Donchevo vs Chernolomets 1919 — Third League - Northeast 2018

Ustrem Donchevo
Ustrem Donchevo
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Chernolomets 1919
Chernolomets 1919
10/19/2024Third League - NortheastThird League - Northeast · Northeast - 10Stadion Sgurta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

Ustrem Donchevo35%
×Draw23%
Chernolomets 191941%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ustrem Donchevo
1.52
Chernolomets 1919
1.67

Chernolomets 1919 creates 10% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 91 away

creates per match

Ustrem Donchevo
1.81
Chernolomets 1919
1.63

allows per match

Ustrem Donchevo
1.72
Chernolomets 1919
1.24

finishing

Ustrem Donchevo+0.00on par
Chernolomets 1919+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ustrem Donchevo ↓

Chernolomets 1919 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Ustrem Donchevo or draw
59%
Ustrem Donchevo or Chernolomets 1919
77%
Draw or Chernolomets 1919
65%

Winning margin

Ustrem Donchevo wins by 2+
17%
Chernolomets 1919 wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Ustrem Donchevo 1+ goals
78%
Ustrem Donchevo 2+ goals
45%
Ustrem Donchevo 3+ goals
20%
Chernolomets 1919 1+ goals
81%
Chernolomets 1919 2+ goals
50%
Chernolomets 1919 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Ustrem Donchevo (draw refunded)
46%
Chernolomets 1919 (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ustrem Donchevo at home — creates 1.81, concedes 1.72 · 102 matches

Chernolomets 1919 away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.24 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ustrem Donchevo attack 1.81 + Chernolomets 1919 defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.52

Chernolomets 1919 attack 1.63 + Ustrem Donchevo defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Ustrem Donchevo scores more
35%
level
23%
Chernolomets 1919 scores more
41%

Chernolomets 1919 at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Chernolomets 1919 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ustrem Donchevo 1 – 1 Chernolomets 1919

Ustrem Donchevo and Chernolomets 1919 drew 1-1 in Third League - Northeast on October 19, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Sgurta in Dobrich.