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Ústí nad Orlicí vs Čáslav — 4. liga - Divizie C 2019

Ústí nad Orlicí
Ústí nad Orlicí
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Čáslav
Čáslav
8/26/20234. liga - Divizie C4. liga - Divizie C · Division C - 4Stadion TJ Jiskra Ústí nad Orlicí

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Ústí nad Orlicí59%
×Draw21%
Čáslav20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ústí nad Orlicí
2.07
Čáslav
1.14

Ústí nad Orlicí creates 82% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 69 away

creates per match

Ústí nad Orlicí
2.10
Čáslav
1.41

allows per match

Ústí nad Orlicí
0.87
Čáslav
2.04

finishing

Ústí nad Orlicí+0.00on par
Čáslav+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ústí nad Orlicí ↓

Čáslav →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Ústí nad Orlicí or draw
80%
Ústí nad Orlicí or Čáslav
79%
Draw or Čáslav
41%

Winning margin

Ústí nad Orlicí wins by 2+
35%
Čáslav wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Ústí nad Orlicí 1+ goals
87%
Ústí nad Orlicí 2+ goals
61%
Ústí nad Orlicí 3+ goals
34%
Čáslav 1+ goals
68%
Čáslav 2+ goals
32%
Čáslav 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Ústí nad Orlicí (draw refunded)
74%
Čáslav (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ústí nad Orlicí at home — creates 2.10, concedes 0.87 · 30 matches

Čáslav away — creates 1.41, concedes 2.04 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ústí nad Orlicí attack 2.10 + Čáslav defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 2.07

Čáslav attack 1.41 + Ústí nad Orlicí defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Ústí nad Orlicí scores more
59%
level
21%
Čáslav scores more
20%

Ústí nad Orlicí at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Ústí nad Orlicí will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ústí nad Orlicí 2 – 0 Čáslav

Ústí nad Orlicí beat Čáslav 2-0 in 4. liga - Divizie C on August 26, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion TJ Jiskra Ústí nad Orlicí in Ústí nad Orlicí.