Ústí nad Labem 1–2 Sokol Živanice: Result & Stats

Ústí nad Labem

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Sokol Živanice

6/3/2023

3. liga - CFL B · ČFL B - 29Městský stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Ústí nad Labem59%

×Draw21%

Sokol Živanice20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ústí nad LabemExpected goals in this matchSokol Živanice

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.04

1.10

Ústí nad Labem

2.04

Sokol Živanice

1.10

Ústí nad Labem creates 85% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 64 away

2.20

creates per match

1.14

1.07

allows per match

1.88

creates per match

Ústí nad Labem

2.20

Sokol Živanice

1.14

allows per match

Ústí nad Labem

1.07

Sokol Živanice

1.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ústí nad Labem+0.00on par

Sokol Živanice+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ústí nad Labem ↓

Sokol Živanice →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Ústí nad Labem or draw

80%

Ústí nad Labem or Sokol Živanice

79%

Draw or Sokol Živanice

41%

Winning margin

Ústí nad Labem wins by 2+

36%

Sokol Živanice wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Ústí nad Labem 1+ goals

87%

Ústí nad Labem 2+ goals

60%

Ústí nad Labem 3+ goals

33%

Sokol Živanice 1+ goals

67%

Sokol Živanice 2+ goals

30%

Sokol Živanice 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Ústí nad Labem (draw refunded)

75%

Sokol Živanice (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ústí nad Labem at home — creates 2.20, concedes 1.07 · 46 matches

Sokol Živanice away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.88 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ústí nad Labem attack 2.20 + Sokol Živanice defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 2.04

Sokol Živanice attack 1.14 + Ústí nad Labem defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Ústí nad Labem scores more

59%

level

21%

Sokol Živanice scores more

20%

Ústí nad Labem at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Ústí nad Labem will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. liga - CFL B: Ústí nad Labem 1–2 Sokol Živanice

Sokol Živanice beat Ústí nad Labem 2-1 in 3. liga - CFL B on June 3, 2023.

The match was played at Městský stadion in Ústí nad Labem.

Ústí nad Labem vs Sokol Živanice — 3. liga - CFL B 2020

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

3. liga - CFL B: Ústí nad Labem 1–2 Sokol Živanice