USM Oujda 1–2 Tihad Casablanca: Result & Stats

USM Oujda

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Tihad Casablanca

2/19/2022

Botola 2 · Round 20Stade Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

USM Oujda46%

×Draw30%

Tihad Casablanca24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

USM OujdaExpected goals in this matchTihad Casablanca

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.22

0.78

USM Oujda

1.22

Tihad Casablanca

0.78

USM Oujda creates 56% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 46 away

1.27

creates per match

0.87

0.69

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

USM Oujda

1.27

Tihad Casablanca

0.87

allows per match

USM Oujda

0.69

Tihad Casablanca

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

USM Oujda+0.00on par

Tihad Casablanca+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

USM Oujda ↓

Tihad Casablanca →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–111%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

USM Oujda or draw

76%

USM Oujda or Tihad Casablanca

70%

Draw or Tihad Casablanca

54%

Winning margin

USM Oujda wins by 2+

21%

Tihad Casablanca wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

USM Oujda 1+ goals

70%

USM Oujda 2+ goals

34%

USM Oujda 3+ goals

12%

Tihad Casablanca 1+ goals

54%

Tihad Casablanca 2+ goals

18%

Tihad Casablanca 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

USM Oujda (draw refunded)

66%

Tihad Casablanca (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

USM Oujda at home — creates 1.27, concedes 0.69 · 75 matches

Tihad Casablanca away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.17 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

USM Oujda attack 1.27 + Tihad Casablanca defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.22

Tihad Casablanca attack 0.87 + USM Oujda defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

USM Oujda scores more

46%

level

30%

Tihad Casablanca scores more

24%

USM Oujda at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "USM Oujda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff