USM Oujda 0–0 Rapide Oued ZEM: Result & Stats

USM Oujda

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Rapide Oued ZEM

4/8/2023

Botola 2 · Round 22Stade Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

USM Oujda45%

×Draw30%

Rapide Oued ZEM25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

USM OujdaExpected goals in this matchRapide Oued ZEM

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.20

0.80

USM Oujda

1.20

Rapide Oued ZEM

0.80

USM Oujda creates 50% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 45 away

1.27

creates per match

0.91

0.69

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

USM Oujda

1.27

Rapide Oued ZEM

0.91

allows per match

USM Oujda

0.69

Rapide Oued ZEM

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

USM Oujda+0.00on par

Rapide Oued ZEM+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

USM Oujda ↓

Rapide Oued ZEM →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–111%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

USM Oujda or draw

75%

USM Oujda or Rapide Oued ZEM

70%

Draw or Rapide Oued ZEM

55%

Winning margin

USM Oujda wins by 2+

20%

Rapide Oued ZEM wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

USM Oujda 1+ goals

70%

USM Oujda 2+ goals

34%

USM Oujda 3+ goals

12%

Rapide Oued ZEM 1+ goals

55%

Rapide Oued ZEM 2+ goals

19%

Rapide Oued ZEM 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

USM Oujda (draw refunded)

65%

Rapide Oued ZEM (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

USM Oujda at home — creates 1.27, concedes 0.69 · 75 matches

Rapide Oued ZEM away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.13 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

USM Oujda attack 1.27 + Rapide Oued ZEM defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.20

Rapide Oued ZEM attack 0.91 + USM Oujda defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

USM Oujda scores more

45%

level

30%

Rapide Oued ZEM scores more

25%

USM Oujda at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "USM Oujda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff