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USM Bel Abbes vs Paradou AC — Ligue 1 2018

USM Bel Abbes
USM Bel Abbes
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Paradou AC
Paradou AC
2/12/2021Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 13Stade du 24 février 1956

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

USM Bel Abbes40%
×Draw28%
Paradou AC32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

USM Bel Abbes
1.24
Paradou AC
1.09

USM Bel Abbes creates 14% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 120 away

creates per match

USM Bel Abbes
1.16
Paradou AC
1.07

allows per match

USM Bel Abbes
1.11
Paradou AC
1.32

finishing

USM Bel Abbes+0.00on par
Paradou AC+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

USM Bel Abbes ↓

Paradou AC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

USM Bel Abbes or draw
68%
USM Bel Abbes or Paradou AC
72%
Draw or Paradou AC
60%

Winning margin

USM Bel Abbes wins by 2+
17%
Paradou AC wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

USM Bel Abbes 1+ goals
71%
USM Bel Abbes 2+ goals
35%
USM Bel Abbes 3+ goals
13%
Paradou AC 1+ goals
66%
Paradou AC 2+ goals
30%
Paradou AC 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

USM Bel Abbes (draw refunded)
55%
Paradou AC (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

USM Bel Abbes at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.11 · 45 matches

Paradou AC away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.32 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

USM Bel Abbes attack 1.16 + Paradou AC defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.24

Paradou AC attack 1.07 + USM Bel Abbes defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

USM Bel Abbes scores more
40%
level
28%
Paradou AC scores more
32%

USM Bel Abbes at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "USM Bel Abbes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 1: USM Bel Abbes 0–0 Paradou AC

USM Bel Abbes and Paradou AC drew 0-0 in Ligue 1 on February 12, 2021.

The match was played at Stade du 24 février 1956 in Sidi Bel Abbès.