USM Bel Abbes 1–1 MC Oran: Result & Stats | Ligue 1

USM Bel Abbes

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

MC Oran

12/23/2020

Ligue 1 · Round 5Stade du 24 février 1956

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

USM Bel Abbes44%

×Draw29%

MC Oran28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

USM Bel AbbesExpected goals in this matchMC Oran

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

0.95

USM Bel Abbes

1.27

MC Oran

0.95

USM Bel Abbes creates 34% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 122 away

1.16

creates per match

0.78

1.11

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

USM Bel Abbes

1.16

MC Oran

0.78

allows per match

USM Bel Abbes

1.11

MC Oran

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

USM Bel Abbes+0.00on par

MC Oran+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

USM Bel Abbes ↓

MC Oran →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

USM Bel Abbes or draw

72%

USM Bel Abbes or MC Oran

71%

Draw or MC Oran

56%

Winning margin

USM Bel Abbes wins by 2+

20%

MC Oran wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

USM Bel Abbes 1+ goals

72%

USM Bel Abbes 2+ goals

36%

USM Bel Abbes 3+ goals

14%

MC Oran 1+ goals

61%

MC Oran 2+ goals

25%

MC Oran 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

USM Bel Abbes (draw refunded)

61%

MC Oran (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

USM Bel Abbes at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.11 · 45 matches

MC Oran away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.38 · 122 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

USM Bel Abbes attack 1.16 + MC Oran defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.27

MC Oran attack 0.78 + USM Bel Abbes defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

USM Bel Abbes scores more

44%

level

29%

MC Oran scores more

28%

USM Bel Abbes at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "USM Bel Abbes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff