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USM Bel Abbes vs Hussein Dey — Ligue 1 2018

USM Bel Abbes
USM Bel Abbes
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Hussein Dey
Hussein Dey
4/10/2019Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 22Stade du 24 février 1956 (Sidi Bel Abbès)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

USM Bel Abbes46%
×Draw28%
Hussein Dey27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

USM Bel Abbes
1.34
Hussein Dey
0.95

USM Bel Abbes creates 41% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 63 away

creates per match

USM Bel Abbes
1.16
Hussein Dey
0.79

allows per match

USM Bel Abbes
1.11
Hussein Dey
1.52

finishing

USM Bel Abbes+0.00on par
Hussein Dey+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

USM Bel Abbes ↓

Hussein Dey →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

USM Bel Abbes or draw
73%
USM Bel Abbes or Hussein Dey
72%
Draw or Hussein Dey
54%

Winning margin

USM Bel Abbes wins by 2+
21%
Hussein Dey wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

USM Bel Abbes 1+ goals
74%
USM Bel Abbes 2+ goals
39%
USM Bel Abbes 3+ goals
15%
Hussein Dey 1+ goals
61%
Hussein Dey 2+ goals
25%
Hussein Dey 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

USM Bel Abbes (draw refunded)
63%
Hussein Dey (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

USM Bel Abbes at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.11 · 45 matches

Hussein Dey away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.52 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

USM Bel Abbes attack 1.16 + Hussein Dey defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.34

Hussein Dey attack 0.79 + USM Bel Abbes defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

USM Bel Abbes scores more
46%
level
28%
Hussein Dey scores more
27%

USM Bel Abbes at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "USM Bel Abbes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 1: USM Bel Abbes 0–0 Hussein Dey

USM Bel Abbes and Hussein Dey drew 0-0 in Ligue 1 on April 10, 2019.

The match was played at Stade du 24 février 1956 (Sidi Bel Abbès).