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USM Alger vs Tadjenant — Ligue 1 2018

USM Alger
USM Alger
FT
3 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Tadjenant
Tadjenant
8/14/2018Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 1Stade Omar Hamadi (al-Jazā’ir (Algiers))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

USM Alger63%
×Draw22%
Tadjenant16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

USM Alger
1.88
Tadjenant
0.81

USM Alger creates 132% more chances

Season form · 122 home / 15 away

creates per match

USM Alger
1.68
Tadjenant
0.87

allows per match

USM Alger
0.76
Tadjenant
2.07

finishing

USM Alger+0.00on par
Tadjenant+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

USM Alger ↓

Tadjenant →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

USM Alger or draw
84%
USM Alger or Tadjenant
78%
Draw or Tadjenant
37%

Winning margin

USM Alger wins by 2+
37%
Tadjenant wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

USM Alger 1+ goals
85%
USM Alger 2+ goals
56%
USM Alger 3+ goals
29%
Tadjenant 1+ goals
56%
Tadjenant 2+ goals
19%
Tadjenant 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

USM Alger (draw refunded)
80%
Tadjenant (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

USM Alger at home — creates 1.68, concedes 0.76 · 122 matches

Tadjenant away — creates 0.87, concedes 2.07 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

USM Alger attack 1.68 + Tadjenant defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.88

Tadjenant attack 0.87 + USM Alger defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

USM Alger scores more
63%
level
22%
Tadjenant scores more
16%

USM Alger at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "USM Alger will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: USM Alger vs Tadjenant

USM Alger beat Tadjenant 3-1 in Ligue 1 on August 14, 2018.

The match was played at Stade Omar Hamadi (al-Jazā’ir (Algiers)).