USM Alger 2–0 MC Oran: Result & Stats | Ligue 1

USM Alger

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

MC Oran

1/15/2024

Ligue 1 · Round 7Stade du 5 Juillet 1962

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 122+ matches

USM Alger55%

×Draw26%

MC Oran19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

USM AlgerExpected goals in this matchMC Oran

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.53

0.77

USM Alger

1.53

MC Oran

0.77

USM Alger creates 99% more chances

Season form · 122 home / 122 away

1.68

creates per match

0.78

0.76

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

USM Alger

1.68

MC Oran

0.78

allows per match

USM Alger

0.76

MC Oran

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

USM Alger+0.00on par

MC Oran+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

USM Alger ↓

MC Oran →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

USM Alger or draw

81%

USM Alger or MC Oran

74%

Draw or MC Oran

45%

Winning margin

USM Alger wins by 2+

29%

MC Oran wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

USM Alger 1+ goals

78%

USM Alger 2+ goals

45%

USM Alger 3+ goals

20%

MC Oran 1+ goals

54%

MC Oran 2+ goals

18%

MC Oran 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

USM Alger (draw refunded)

75%

MC Oran (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

USM Alger at home — creates 1.68, concedes 0.76 · 122 matches

MC Oran away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.38 · 122 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

USM Alger attack 1.68 + MC Oran defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.53

MC Oran attack 0.78 + USM Alger defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

USM Alger scores more

55%

level

26%

MC Oran scores more

19%

USM Alger at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "USM Alger will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff