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MC Oran vs USM Alger — Ligue 1 2018

MC Oran
MC Oran
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
USM Alger
USM Alger
5/21/2024Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 22Stade Ahmed Zabana

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 123+ matches

MC Oran47%
×Draw29%
USM Alger24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

MC Oran
1.27
USM Alger
0.81

MC Oran creates 57% more chances

Season form · 123 home / 123 away

creates per match

MC Oran
1.40
USM Alger
0.87

allows per match

MC Oran
0.75
USM Alger
1.15

finishing

MC Oran+0.00on par
USM Alger+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

MC Oran ↓

USM Alger →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

MC Oran or draw
76%
MC Oran or USM Alger
71%
Draw or USM Alger
53%

Winning margin

MC Oran wins by 2+
22%
USM Alger wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

MC Oran 1+ goals
72%
MC Oran 2+ goals
36%
MC Oran 3+ goals
14%
USM Alger 1+ goals
56%
USM Alger 2+ goals
19%
USM Alger 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

MC Oran (draw refunded)
67%
USM Alger (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

MC Oran at home — creates 1.40, concedes 0.75 · 123 matches

USM Alger away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.15 · 123 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

MC Oran attack 1.40 + USM Alger defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.27

USM Alger attack 0.87 + MC Oran defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

MC Oran scores more
47%
level
29%
USM Alger scores more
24%

MC Oran at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "MC Oran will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: MC Oran vs USM Alger

MC Oran beat USM Alger 1-0 in Ligue 1 on May 21, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Ahmed Zabana in Oran.