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USM Alger vs AS Ain Mlila — Ligue 1 2018

USM Alger
USM Alger
FT
3 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
AS Ain Mlila
AS Ain Mlila
9/20/2018Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 7Stade Omar Hamadi (al-Jazā’ir (Algiers))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

USM Alger61%
×Draw23%
AS Ain Mlila16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

USM Alger
1.75
AS Ain Mlila
0.77

USM Alger creates 127% more chances

Season form · 122 home / 45 away

creates per match

USM Alger
1.68
AS Ain Mlila
0.78

allows per match

USM Alger
0.76
AS Ain Mlila
1.82

finishing

USM Alger+0.00on par
AS Ain Mlila+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

USM Alger ↓

AS Ain Mlila →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

USM Alger or draw
84%
USM Alger or AS Ain Mlila
77%
Draw or AS Ain Mlila
39%

Winning margin

USM Alger wins by 2+
35%
AS Ain Mlila wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

USM Alger 1+ goals
83%
USM Alger 2+ goals
52%
USM Alger 3+ goals
25%
AS Ain Mlila 1+ goals
54%
AS Ain Mlila 2+ goals
18%
AS Ain Mlila 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

USM Alger (draw refunded)
79%
AS Ain Mlila (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

USM Alger at home — creates 1.68, concedes 0.76 · 122 matches

AS Ain Mlila away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.82 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

USM Alger attack 1.68 + AS Ain Mlila defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.75

AS Ain Mlila attack 0.78 + USM Alger defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

USM Alger scores more
61%
level
23%
AS Ain Mlila scores more
16%

USM Alger at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "USM Alger will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: USM Alger vs AS Ain Mlila

USM Alger beat AS Ain Mlila 3-0 in Ligue 1 on September 20, 2018.

The match was played at Stade Omar Hamadi (al-Jazā’ir (Algiers)).