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AS AIN Mlila vs USM Alger — Ligue 1 2018

AS AIN Mlila
AS AIN Mlila
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
USM Alger
USM Alger
2/17/2020Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 18Stade Touhami Zoubir Khelifi (Aïn M'lila)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

AS AIN Mlila45%
×Draw32%
USM Alger23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AS AIN Mlila
1.12
USM Alger
0.72

AS AIN Mlila creates 56% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 123 away

creates per match

AS AIN Mlila
1.09
USM Alger
0.87

allows per match

AS AIN Mlila
0.58
USM Alger
1.15

finishing

AS AIN Mlila+0.00on par
USM Alger+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Under
  • Under72
  • Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AS AIN Mlila ↓

USM Alger →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
28%72%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

AS AIN Mlila or draw
77%
AS AIN Mlila or USM Alger
68%
Draw or USM Alger
55%

Winning margin

AS AIN Mlila wins by 2+
19%
USM Alger wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

AS AIN Mlila 1+ goals
67%
AS AIN Mlila 2+ goals
31%
AS AIN Mlila 3+ goals
10%
USM Alger 1+ goals
51%
USM Alger 2+ goals
16%
USM Alger 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

AS AIN Mlila (draw refunded)
66%
USM Alger (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AS AIN Mlila at home — creates 1.09, concedes 0.58 · 45 matches

USM Alger away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.15 · 123 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AS AIN Mlila attack 1.09 + USM Alger defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.12

USM Alger attack 0.87 + AS AIN Mlila defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

AS AIN Mlila scores more
45%
level
32%
USM Alger scores more
23%

AS AIN Mlila at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "AS AIN Mlila will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: AS AIN Mlila vs USM Alger

AS AIN Mlila and USM Alger drew 1-1 in Ligue 1 on February 17, 2020.

The match was played at Stade Touhami Zoubir Khelifi (Aïn M'lila).