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Uskok Klis vs Zmaj Makarska — Third NL - Jug 2019

Uskok Klis
Uskok Klis
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Zmaj Makarska
Zmaj Makarska
3/29/2025Third NL - JugThird NL - Jug · South - 20Stadion iza Grada

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

Uskok Klis69%
×Draw19%
Zmaj Makarska12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Uskok Klis
2.17
Zmaj Makarska
0.79

Uskok Klis creates 175% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 78 away

creates per match

Uskok Klis
2.13
Zmaj Makarska
0.64

allows per match

Uskok Klis
0.94
Zmaj Makarska
2.21

finishing

Uskok Klis+0.00on par
Zmaj Makarska+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Uskok Klis ↓

Zmaj Makarska →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Uskok Klis or draw
88%
Uskok Klis or Zmaj Makarska
81%
Draw or Zmaj Makarska
31%

Winning margin

Uskok Klis wins by 2+
45%
Zmaj Makarska wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Uskok Klis 1+ goals
89%
Uskok Klis 2+ goals
64%
Uskok Klis 3+ goals
36%
Zmaj Makarska 1+ goals
55%
Zmaj Makarska 2+ goals
19%
Zmaj Makarska 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Uskok Klis (draw refunded)
85%
Zmaj Makarska (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Uskok Klis at home — creates 2.13, concedes 0.94 · 87 matches

Zmaj Makarska away — creates 0.64, concedes 2.21 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Uskok Klis attack 2.13 + Zmaj Makarska defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 2.17

Zmaj Makarska attack 0.64 + Uskok Klis defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Uskok Klis scores more
69%
level
19%
Zmaj Makarska scores more
12%

Uskok Klis at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Uskok Klis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third NL - Jug: Uskok Klis 2–0 Zmaj Makarska

Uskok Klis beat Zmaj Makarska 2-0 in Third NL - Jug on March 29, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion iza Grada in Klis.