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Uskok Klis vs NK Zadar — Third NL - Jug 2019

Uskok Klis
Uskok Klis
FT
1 – 1
NK Zadar
NK Zadar
10/12/2019Third NL - JugThird NL - Jug · South - 8Stadion iza Grada

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Uskok Klis58%
×Draw22%
NK Zadar20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Uskok Klis
1.90
NK Zadar
1.02

Uskok Klis creates 86% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 9 away

creates per match

Uskok Klis
2.13
NK Zadar
1.11

allows per match

Uskok Klis
0.94
NK Zadar
1.67

finishing

Uskok Klis+0.00on par
NK Zadar+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Uskok Klis ↓

NK Zadar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Uskok Klis or draw
80%
Uskok Klis or NK Zadar
78%
Draw or NK Zadar
42%

Winning margin

Uskok Klis wins by 2+
34%
NK Zadar wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Uskok Klis 1+ goals
85%
Uskok Klis 2+ goals
56%
Uskok Klis 3+ goals
29%
NK Zadar 1+ goals
64%
NK Zadar 2+ goals
27%
NK Zadar 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Uskok Klis (draw refunded)
74%
NK Zadar (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Uskok Klis at home — creates 2.13, concedes 0.94 · 87 matches

NK Zadar away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.67 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Uskok Klis attack 2.13 + NK Zadar defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.90

NK Zadar attack 1.11 + Uskok Klis defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Uskok Klis scores more
58%
level
22%
NK Zadar scores more
20%

Uskok Klis at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Uskok Klis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third NL - Jug: Uskok Klis 1–1 NK Zadar

Uskok Klis and NK Zadar drew 1-1 in Third NL - Jug on October 12, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion iza Grada in Klis.