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Uskok Klis vs HNK Hajduk Split II — Third NL - Jug 2019

Uskok Klis
Uskok Klis
FT
3 – 1
HNK Hajduk Split II
HNK Hajduk Split II
9/2/2023Third NL - JugThird NL - Jug · South - 2Stadion iza Grada

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Uskok Klis74%
×Draw16%
HNK Hajduk Split II10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Uskok Klis
2.60
HNK Hajduk Split II
0.87

Uskok Klis creates 199% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 15 away

creates per match

Uskok Klis
2.13
HNK Hajduk Split II
0.80

allows per match

Uskok Klis
0.94
HNK Hajduk Split II
3.07

finishing

Uskok Klis+0.00on par
HNK Hajduk Split II+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Uskok Klis ↓

HNK Hajduk Split II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–17%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Uskok Klis or draw
90%
Uskok Klis or HNK Hajduk Split II
84%
Draw or HNK Hajduk Split II
26%

Winning margin

Uskok Klis wins by 2+
52%
HNK Hajduk Split II wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Uskok Klis 1+ goals
92%
Uskok Klis 2+ goals
73%
Uskok Klis 3+ goals
47%
HNK Hajduk Split II 1+ goals
58%
HNK Hajduk Split II 2+ goals
22%
HNK Hajduk Split II 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Uskok Klis (draw refunded)
88%
HNK Hajduk Split II (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Uskok Klis at home — creates 2.13, concedes 0.94 · 87 matches

HNK Hajduk Split II away — creates 0.80, concedes 3.07 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Uskok Klis attack 2.13 + HNK Hajduk Split II defence 3.07 → ÷2 → 2.60

HNK Hajduk Split II attack 0.80 + Uskok Klis defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

Uskok Klis scores more
74%
level
16%
HNK Hajduk Split II scores more
10%

Uskok Klis at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "Uskok Klis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Uskok Klis 3 – 1 HNK Hajduk Split II

Uskok Klis beat HNK Hajduk Split II 3-1 in Third NL - Jug on September 2, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion iza Grada in Klis.