Uskok Klis 3–0 GOŠK Dubrovnik: Result & Stats

Uskok Klis

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

GOŠK Dubrovnik

4/12/2025

Third NL - Jug · South - 22Stadion iza Grada

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 87+ matches

Uskok Klis62%

×Draw21%

GOŠK Dubrovnik17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Uskok KlisExpected goals in this matchGOŠK Dubrovnik

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.96

0.90

Uskok Klis

1.96

GOŠK Dubrovnik

0.90

Uskok Klis creates 118% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 102 away

2.13

creates per match

0.86

0.94

allows per match

1.79

creates per match

Uskok Klis

2.13

GOŠK Dubrovnik

0.86

allows per match

Uskok Klis

0.94

GOŠK Dubrovnik

1.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Uskok Klis+0.00on par

GOŠK Dubrovnik+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Uskok Klis ↓

GOŠK Dubrovnik →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–110%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Uskok Klis or draw

83%

Uskok Klis or GOŠK Dubrovnik

79%

Draw or GOŠK Dubrovnik

38%

Winning margin

Uskok Klis wins by 2+

37%

GOŠK Dubrovnik wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Uskok Klis 1+ goals

86%

Uskok Klis 2+ goals

58%

Uskok Klis 3+ goals

31%

GOŠK Dubrovnik 1+ goals

59%

GOŠK Dubrovnik 2+ goals

23%

GOŠK Dubrovnik 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Uskok Klis (draw refunded)

79%

GOŠK Dubrovnik (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Uskok Klis at home — creates 2.13, concedes 0.94 · 87 matches

GOŠK Dubrovnik away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.79 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Uskok Klis attack 2.13 + GOŠK Dubrovnik defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.96

GOŠK Dubrovnik attack 0.86 + Uskok Klis defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Uskok Klis scores more

62%

level

21%

GOŠK Dubrovnik scores more

17%

Uskok Klis at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Uskok Klis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff