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Ushuru FC vs Western Stima — Super League 2018

Ushuru FC
Ushuru FC
FT
3 – 2
Western Stima
Western Stima
6/30/2018Super LeagueSuper League · Super League - Round 21

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Ushuru FC40%
×Draw30%
Western Stima30%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ushuru FC
1.14
Western Stima
0.95

Ushuru FC creates 20% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 18 away

creates per match

Ushuru FC
1.33
Western Stima
1.28

allows per match

Ushuru FC
0.61
Western Stima
0.94

finishing

Ushuru FC+0.00on par
Western Stima+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ushuru FC ↓

Western Stima →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Ushuru FC or draw
70%
Ushuru FC or Western Stima
70%
Draw or Western Stima
60%

Winning margin

Ushuru FC wins by 2+
17%
Western Stima wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Ushuru FC 1+ goals
68%
Ushuru FC 2+ goals
32%
Ushuru FC 3+ goals
11%
Western Stima 1+ goals
61%
Western Stima 2+ goals
25%
Western Stima 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Ushuru FC (draw refunded)
57%
Western Stima (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ushuru FC at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.61 · 18 matches

Western Stima away — creates 1.28, concedes 0.94 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ushuru FC attack 1.33 + Western Stima defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.14

Western Stima attack 1.28 + Ushuru FC defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Ushuru FC scores more
40%
level
30%
Western Stima scores more
30%

Ushuru FC at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Ushuru FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ushuru FC vs Western Stima

Ushuru FC beat Western Stima 3-2 in Super League on June 30, 2018.