Ushuru FC 0–0 Kangemi All Stars: Result & Stats

Ushuru FC

FT

0 – 0

Kangemi All Stars

9/16/2018

Super League · Super League - Round 33

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Ushuru FC53%

×Draw26%

Kangemi All Stars21%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ushuru FCExpected goals in this matchKangemi All Stars

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

0.82

Ushuru FC

1.50

Kangemi All Stars

0.82

Ushuru FC creates 83% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 18 away

1.29

creates per match

1.00

0.65

allows per match

1.72

creates per match

Ushuru FC

1.29

Kangemi All Stars

1.00

allows per match

Ushuru FC

0.65

Kangemi All Stars

1.72

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ushuru FC+0.00on par

Kangemi All Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ushuru FC ↓

Kangemi All Stars →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Ushuru FC or draw

79%

Ushuru FC or Kangemi All Stars

74%

Draw or Kangemi All Stars

47%

Winning margin

Ushuru FC wins by 2+

27%

Kangemi All Stars wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Ushuru FC 1+ goals

78%

Ushuru FC 2+ goals

44%

Ushuru FC 3+ goals

19%

Kangemi All Stars 1+ goals

56%

Kangemi All Stars 2+ goals

20%

Kangemi All Stars 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Ushuru FC (draw refunded)

72%

Kangemi All Stars (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ushuru FC at home — creates 1.29, concedes 0.65 · 17 matches

Kangemi All Stars away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.72 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ushuru FC attack 1.29 + Kangemi All Stars defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.50

Kangemi All Stars attack 1.00 + Ushuru FC defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Ushuru FC scores more

53%

level

26%

Kangemi All Stars scores more

21%

Ushuru FC at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Ushuru FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff