Ushuru FC 2–0 Isibania: Result & Stats

Ushuru FC

FT

2 – 0

Isibania

4/22/2018

Super League · Super League - Round 13

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Ushuru FC63%

×Draw24%

Isibania12%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ushuru FCExpected goals in this matchIsibania

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

0.55

Ushuru FC

1.61

Isibania

0.55

Ushuru FC creates 193% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 18 away

1.29

creates per match

0.44

0.65

allows per match

1.94

creates per match

Ushuru FC

1.29

Isibania

0.44

allows per match

Ushuru FC

0.65

Isibania

1.94

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ushuru FC+0.00on par

Isibania+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No66
Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ushuru FC ↓

Isibania →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–16%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–019%

1–110%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–015%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Ushuru FC or draw

88%

Ushuru FC or Isibania

76%

Draw or Isibania

37%

Winning margin

Ushuru FC wins by 2+

35%

Isibania wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Ushuru FC 1+ goals

80%

Ushuru FC 2+ goals

48%

Ushuru FC 3+ goals

22%

Isibania 1+ goals

42%

Isibania 2+ goals

11%

Isibania 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Ushuru FC (draw refunded)

84%

Isibania (draw refunded)

16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ushuru FC at home — creates 1.29, concedes 0.65 · 17 matches

Isibania away — creates 0.44, concedes 1.94 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ushuru FC attack 1.29 + Isibania defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.61

Isibania attack 0.44 + Ushuru FC defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Ushuru FC scores more

63%

level

24%

Isibania scores more

12%

Ushuru FC at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Ushuru FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff