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Ushuru FC vs Green Commandos — Super League 2018

Ushuru FC
Ushuru FC
FT
1 – 0
Green Commandos
Green Commandos
3/11/2018Super LeagueSuper League · Super League - Round 6

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Ushuru FC58%
×Draw26%
Green Commandos17%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ushuru FC
1.55
Green Commandos
0.70

Ushuru FC creates 121% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 16 away

creates per match

Ushuru FC
1.29
Green Commandos
0.75

allows per match

Ushuru FC
0.65
Green Commandos
1.81

finishing

Ushuru FC+0.00on par
Green Commandos+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ushuru FC ↓

Green Commandos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Ushuru FC or draw
83%
Ushuru FC or Green Commandos
74%
Draw or Green Commandos
42%

Winning margin

Ushuru FC wins by 2+
31%
Green Commandos wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Ushuru FC 1+ goals
79%
Ushuru FC 2+ goals
46%
Ushuru FC 3+ goals
20%
Green Commandos 1+ goals
50%
Green Commandos 2+ goals
16%
Green Commandos 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Ushuru FC (draw refunded)
77%
Green Commandos (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ushuru FC at home — creates 1.29, concedes 0.65 · 17 matches

Green Commandos away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.81 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ushuru FC attack 1.29 + Green Commandos defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.55

Green Commandos attack 0.75 + Ushuru FC defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Ushuru FC scores more
58%
level
26%
Green Commandos scores more
17%

Ushuru FC at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Ushuru FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ushuru FC vs Green Commandos

Ushuru FC beat Green Commandos 1-0 in Super League on March 11, 2018.