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USFAS Bamako vs US Bougouba — Première Division 2019

USFAS Bamako
USFAS Bamako
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
US Bougouba
US Bougouba
1/11/2025Première DivisionPremière Division · Round 7Stade Centre Salif Keita

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

USFAS Bamako41%
×Draw30%
US Bougouba29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

USFAS Bamako
1.15
US Bougouba
0.93

USFAS Bamako creates 24% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 57 away

creates per match

USFAS Bamako
1.08
US Bougouba
0.98

allows per match

USFAS Bamako
0.88
US Bougouba
1.21

finishing

USFAS Bamako+0.00on par
US Bougouba+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

USFAS Bamako ↓

US Bougouba →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

USFAS Bamako or draw
71%
USFAS Bamako or US Bougouba
70%
Draw or US Bougouba
59%

Winning margin

USFAS Bamako wins by 2+
17%
US Bougouba wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

USFAS Bamako 1+ goals
68%
USFAS Bamako 2+ goals
32%
USFAS Bamako 3+ goals
11%
US Bougouba 1+ goals
61%
US Bougouba 2+ goals
24%
US Bougouba 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

USFAS Bamako (draw refunded)
58%
US Bougouba (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

USFAS Bamako at home — creates 1.08, concedes 0.88 · 91 matches

US Bougouba away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.21 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

USFAS Bamako attack 1.08 + US Bougouba defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.15

US Bougouba attack 0.98 + USFAS Bamako defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

USFAS Bamako scores more
41%
level
30%
US Bougouba scores more
29%

USFAS Bamako at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "USFAS Bamako will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Première Division: USFAS Bamako 2–1 US Bougouba

USFAS Bamako beat US Bougouba 2-1 in Première Division on January 11, 2025.

The match was played at Stade Centre Salif Keita in Bamako.