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USFAS Bamako vs Koro — Première Division 2019

USFAS Bamako
USFAS Bamako
FT
2 – 2
Koro
Koro
11/6/2023Première DivisionPremière Division · Round 2Stade 26 Mars

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

USFAS Bamako44%
×Draw31%
Koro25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

USFAS Bamako
1.11
Koro
0.76

USFAS Bamako creates 46% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 14 away

creates per match

USFAS Bamako
1.08
Koro
0.64

allows per match

USFAS Bamako
0.88
Koro
1.14

finishing

USFAS Bamako+0.00on par
Koro+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

USFAS Bamako ↓

Koro →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–112%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

USFAS Bamako or draw
75%
USFAS Bamako or Koro
69%
Draw or Koro
56%

Winning margin

USFAS Bamako wins by 2+
18%
Koro wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

USFAS Bamako 1+ goals
67%
USFAS Bamako 2+ goals
30%
USFAS Bamako 3+ goals
10%
Koro 1+ goals
53%
Koro 2+ goals
18%
Koro 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

USFAS Bamako (draw refunded)
64%
Koro (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

USFAS Bamako at home — creates 1.08, concedes 0.88 · 91 matches

Koro away — creates 0.64, concedes 1.14 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

USFAS Bamako attack 1.08 + Koro defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.11

Koro attack 0.64 + USFAS Bamako defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

USFAS Bamako scores more
44%
level
31%
Koro scores more
25%

USFAS Bamako at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "USFAS Bamako will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: USFAS Bamako vs Koro

USFAS Bamako and Koro drew 2-2 in Première Division on November 6, 2023.

The match was played at Stade 26 Mars in Bamako.