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USFAS Bamako vs Derby Academie — Première Division 2019

USFAS Bamako
USFAS Bamako
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Derby Academie
Derby Academie
3/2/2026Première DivisionPremière Division · Round 14

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

USFAS Bamako39%
×Draw33%
Derby Academie28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

USFAS Bamako
0.97
Derby Academie
0.78

USFAS Bamako creates 24% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 13 away

creates per match

USFAS Bamako
1.08
Derby Academie
0.69

allows per match

USFAS Bamako
0.88
Derby Academie
0.85

finishing

USFAS Bamako+0.00on par
Derby Academie+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Under
  • Under74
  • Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

USFAS Bamako ↓

Derby Academie →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–114%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–16%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (17%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
52%48%2.5
26%74%3.5
10%90%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

USFAS Bamako or draw
72%
USFAS Bamako or Derby Academie
67%
Draw or Derby Academie
61%

Winning margin

USFAS Bamako wins by 2+
15%
Derby Academie wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

USFAS Bamako 1+ goals
62%
USFAS Bamako 2+ goals
25%
USFAS Bamako 3+ goals
7%
Derby Academie 1+ goals
54%
Derby Academie 2+ goals
18%
Derby Academie 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

USFAS Bamako (draw refunded)
58%
Derby Academie (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

USFAS Bamako at home — creates 1.08, concedes 0.88 · 91 matches

Derby Academie away — creates 0.69, concedes 0.85 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

USFAS Bamako attack 1.08 + Derby Academie defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.97

Derby Academie attack 0.69 + USFAS Bamako defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

USFAS Bamako scores more
39%
level
33%
Derby Academie scores more
28%

USFAS Bamako at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "USFAS Bamako will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Première Division: USFAS Bamako 0–0 Derby Academie

USFAS Bamako and Derby Academie drew 0-0 in Première Division on March 2, 2026.