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USFAS Bamako vs Black Stars — Première Division 2019

USFAS Bamako
USFAS Bamako
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Black Stars
Black Stars
Unknown 89' (pen), 74', 15', 11'
Unknown 25'
12/22/2023Première DivisionPremière Division · Round 10Complexe Sportif Karounga Keïta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

USFAS Bamako45%
×Draw29%
Black Stars26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

USFAS Bamako
1.27
Black Stars
0.88

USFAS Bamako creates 44% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 67 away

creates per match

USFAS Bamako
1.08
Black Stars
0.87

allows per match

USFAS Bamako
0.88
Black Stars
1.46

finishing

USFAS Bamako+0.00on par
Black Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

USFAS Bamako ↓

Black Stars →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

USFAS Bamako or draw
74%
USFAS Bamako or Black Stars
71%
Draw or Black Stars
55%

Winning margin

USFAS Bamako wins by 2+
21%
Black Stars wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

USFAS Bamako 1+ goals
72%
USFAS Bamako 2+ goals
36%
USFAS Bamako 3+ goals
14%
Black Stars 1+ goals
59%
Black Stars 2+ goals
22%
Black Stars 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

USFAS Bamako (draw refunded)
64%
Black Stars (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

USFAS Bamako at home — creates 1.08, concedes 0.88 · 91 matches

Black Stars away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.46 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

USFAS Bamako attack 1.08 + Black Stars defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.27

Black Stars attack 0.87 + USFAS Bamako defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

USFAS Bamako scores more
45%
level
29%
Black Stars scores more
26%

USFAS Bamako at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "USFAS Bamako will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'
15'
25'
74'
89'
Penalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: USFAS Bamako vs Black Stars

USFAS Bamako beat Black Stars 4-1 in Première Division on December 22, 2023.

Goals: ? (11', 15', 25', 74', 89' pen).

The match was played at Complexe Sportif Karounga Keïta in Bamako.