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USFAS Bamako vs Bakaridjan — Première Division 2019

USFAS Bamako
USFAS Bamako
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Bakaridjan
Bakaridjan
11/28/2025Première DivisionPremière Division · Round 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

USFAS Bamako35%
×Draw32%
Bakaridjan33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

USFAS Bamako
0.97
Bakaridjan
0.94

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 91 home / 93 away

creates per match

USFAS Bamako
1.08
Bakaridjan
1.00

allows per match

USFAS Bamako
0.88
Bakaridjan
0.86

finishing

USFAS Bamako+0.00on par
Bakaridjan+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

USFAS Bamako ↓

Bakaridjan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–114%
0–27%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–114%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

USFAS Bamako or draw
67%
USFAS Bamako or Bakaridjan
68%
Draw or Bakaridjan
65%

Winning margin

USFAS Bamako wins by 2+
13%
Bakaridjan wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

USFAS Bamako 1+ goals
62%
USFAS Bamako 2+ goals
25%
USFAS Bamako 3+ goals
7%
Bakaridjan 1+ goals
61%
Bakaridjan 2+ goals
24%
Bakaridjan 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

USFAS Bamako (draw refunded)
51%
Bakaridjan (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

USFAS Bamako at home — creates 1.08, concedes 0.88 · 91 matches

Bakaridjan away — creates 1.00, concedes 0.86 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

USFAS Bamako attack 1.08 + Bakaridjan defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.97

Bakaridjan attack 1.00 + USFAS Bamako defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

USFAS Bamako scores more
35%
level
32%
Bakaridjan scores more
33%

USFAS Bamako at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "USFAS Bamako will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: USFAS Bamako vs Bakaridjan

USFAS Bamako beat Bakaridjan 2-0 in Première Division on November 28, 2025.