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USD Palmese vs Vis Artena — Serie D - Girone G 2019

USD Palmese
USD Palmese
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Vis Artena
Vis Artena
4/16/2023Serie D - Girone GSerie D - Girone G · Group G - 31Stadio Comunale Di Palma Campania

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

USD Palmese43%
×Draw27%
Vis Artena30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

USD Palmese
1.36
Vis Artena
1.10

USD Palmese creates 24% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 47 away

creates per match

USD Palmese
1.53
Vis Artena
1.06

allows per match

USD Palmese
1.15
Vis Artena
1.19

finishing

USD Palmese+0.00on par
Vis Artena+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

USD Palmese ↓

Vis Artena →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

USD Palmese or draw
70%
USD Palmese or Vis Artena
73%
Draw or Vis Artena
57%

Winning margin

USD Palmese wins by 2+
20%
Vis Artena wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

USD Palmese 1+ goals
74%
USD Palmese 2+ goals
39%
USD Palmese 3+ goals
16%
Vis Artena 1+ goals
67%
Vis Artena 2+ goals
30%
Vis Artena 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

USD Palmese (draw refunded)
59%
Vis Artena (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

USD Palmese at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.15 · 34 matches

Vis Artena away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.19 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

USD Palmese attack 1.53 + Vis Artena defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.36

Vis Artena attack 1.06 + USD Palmese defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

USD Palmese scores more
43%
level
27%
Vis Artena scores more
30%

USD Palmese at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "USD Palmese will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: USD Palmese vs Vis Artena

USD Palmese and Vis Artena drew 1-1 in Serie D - Girone G on April 16, 2023.

The match was played at Stadio Comunale Di Palma Campania in Palma Campania.