USD Palmese 4–2 Nola 1925: Result & Stats

USD Palmese

FT

4 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Nola 1925

10/16/2022

Serie D - Girone G · Group G - 7Stadio Comunale Di Palma Campania

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

USD Palmese47%

×Draw24%

Nola 192529%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

USD PalmeseExpected goals in this matchNola 1925

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.68

1.29

USD Palmese

1.68

Nola 1925

1.29

USD Palmese creates 30% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 18 away

1.53

creates per match

1.44

1.15

allows per match

1.83

creates per match

USD Palmese

1.53

Nola 1925

1.44

allows per match

USD Palmese

1.15

Nola 1925

1.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

USD Palmese+0.00on par

Nola 1925+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

USD Palmese ↓

Nola 1925 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

USD Palmese or draw

71%

USD Palmese or Nola 1925

76%

Draw or Nola 1925

53%

Winning margin

USD Palmese wins by 2+

24%

Nola 1925 wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

USD Palmese 1+ goals

81%

USD Palmese 2+ goals

50%

USD Palmese 3+ goals

24%

Nola 1925 1+ goals

72%

Nola 1925 2+ goals

37%

Nola 1925 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

USD Palmese (draw refunded)

61%

Nola 1925 (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

USD Palmese at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.15 · 34 matches

Nola 1925 away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.83 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

USD Palmese attack 1.53 + Nola 1925 defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.68

Nola 1925 attack 1.44 + USD Palmese defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

USD Palmese scores more

47%

level

24%

Nola 1925 scores more

29%

USD Palmese at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "USD Palmese will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff