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USD Palmese vs Lupa Roma — Serie D - Girone G 2019

USD Palmese
USD Palmese
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 3
Lupa Roma
Lupa Roma
11/13/2022Serie D - Girone GSerie D - Girone G · Group G - 11Stadio Comunale Di Palma Campania

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

USD Palmese42%
×Draw29%
Lupa Roma29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

USD Palmese
1.23
Lupa Roma
0.98

USD Palmese creates 26% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 17 away

creates per match

USD Palmese
1.53
Lupa Roma
0.82

allows per match

USD Palmese
1.15
Lupa Roma
0.94

finishing

USD Palmese+0.00on par
Lupa Roma+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

USD Palmese ↓

Lupa Roma →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

USD Palmese or draw
71%
USD Palmese or Lupa Roma
71%
Draw or Lupa Roma
58%

Winning margin

USD Palmese wins by 2+
18%
Lupa Roma wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

USD Palmese 1+ goals
71%
USD Palmese 2+ goals
35%
USD Palmese 3+ goals
13%
Lupa Roma 1+ goals
62%
Lupa Roma 2+ goals
26%
Lupa Roma 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

USD Palmese (draw refunded)
59%
Lupa Roma (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

USD Palmese at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.15 · 34 matches

Lupa Roma away — creates 0.82, concedes 0.94 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

USD Palmese attack 1.53 + Lupa Roma defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.23

Lupa Roma attack 0.82 + USD Palmese defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

USD Palmese scores more
42%
level
29%
Lupa Roma scores more
29%

USD Palmese at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "USD Palmese will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: USD Palmese vs Lupa Roma

Lupa Roma beat USD Palmese 3-2 in Serie D - Girone G on November 13, 2022.

The match was played at Stadio Comunale Di Palma Campania in Palma Campania.