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USC Rohrbach vs St. Pölten II — Landesliga - Niederosterreich 2019

USC Rohrbach
USC Rohrbach
FT
0 – 0
St. Pölten II
St. Pölten II
8/18/2023Landesliga - NiederosterreichLandesliga - Niederosterreich · Niederösterreich - 3Liese Prokop Sportanlage

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 71+ matches

USC Rohrbach36%
×Draw24%
St. Pölten II40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

USC Rohrbach
1.51
St. Pölten II
1.59

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 71 home / 85 away

creates per match

USC Rohrbach
1.23
St. Pölten II
1.65

allows per match

USC Rohrbach
1.54
St. Pölten II
1.79

finishing

USC Rohrbach+0.00on par
St. Pölten II+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

USC Rohrbach ↓

St. Pölten II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

USC Rohrbach or draw
60%
USC Rohrbach or St. Pölten II
76%
Draw or St. Pölten II
64%

Winning margin

USC Rohrbach wins by 2+
17%
St. Pölten II wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

USC Rohrbach 1+ goals
78%
USC Rohrbach 2+ goals
44%
USC Rohrbach 3+ goals
19%
St. Pölten II 1+ goals
80%
St. Pölten II 2+ goals
47%
St. Pölten II 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

USC Rohrbach (draw refunded)
48%
St. Pölten II (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

USC Rohrbach at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.54 · 71 matches

St. Pölten II away — creates 1.65, concedes 1.79 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

USC Rohrbach attack 1.23 + St. Pölten II defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.51

St. Pölten II attack 1.65 + USC Rohrbach defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

USC Rohrbach scores more
36%
level
24%
St. Pölten II scores more
40%

St. Pölten II at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "St. Pölten II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: USC Rohrbach vs St. Pölten II

USC Rohrbach and St. Pölten II drew 0-0 in Landesliga - Niederosterreich on August 18, 2023.

The match was played at Liese Prokop Sportanlage in Rohrbach an der Gölsen.