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USC Rohrbach vs Mannersdorf — Landesliga - Niederosterreich 2019

USC Rohrbach
USC Rohrbach
FT
2 – 0
Mannersdorf
Mannersdorf
3/31/2023Landesliga - NiederosterreichLandesliga - Niederosterreich · Niederösterreich - 19Liese Prokop Sportanlage

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

USC Rohrbach64%
×Draw19%
Mannersdorf17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

USC Rohrbach
2.23
Mannersdorf
1.05

USC Rohrbach creates 112% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 41 away

creates per match

USC Rohrbach
1.23
Mannersdorf
0.56

allows per match

USC Rohrbach
1.54
Mannersdorf
3.22

finishing

USC Rohrbach+0.00on par
Mannersdorf+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

USC Rohrbach ↓

Mannersdorf →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

USC Rohrbach or draw
83%
USC Rohrbach or Mannersdorf
81%
Draw or Mannersdorf
36%

Winning margin

USC Rohrbach wins by 2+
41%
Mannersdorf wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

USC Rohrbach 1+ goals
89%
USC Rohrbach 2+ goals
65%
USC Rohrbach 3+ goals
38%
Mannersdorf 1+ goals
65%
Mannersdorf 2+ goals
28%
Mannersdorf 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

USC Rohrbach (draw refunded)
79%
Mannersdorf (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

USC Rohrbach at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.54 · 71 matches

Mannersdorf away — creates 0.56, concedes 3.22 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

USC Rohrbach attack 1.23 + Mannersdorf defence 3.22 → ÷2 → 2.23

Mannersdorf attack 0.56 + USC Rohrbach defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

USC Rohrbach scores more
64%
level
19%
Mannersdorf scores more
17%

USC Rohrbach at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "USC Rohrbach will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Landesliga - Niederosterreich: USC Rohrbach 2–0 Mannersdorf

USC Rohrbach beat Mannersdorf 2-0 in Landesliga - Niederosterreich on March 31, 2023.

The match was played at Liese Prokop Sportanlage in Rohrbach an der Gölsen.