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USC Rohrbach vs Kottingbrunn — Landesliga - Niederosterreich 2019

USC Rohrbach
USC Rohrbach
CANC
14:30
Kottingbrunn
Kottingbrunn
5/2/2021Landesliga - NiederosterreichLandesliga - Niederosterreich · Niederösterreich - 24Liese Prokop Sportanlage

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

USC Rohrbach32%
×Draw26%
Kottingbrunn42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

USC Rohrbach
1.25
Kottingbrunn
1.46

Kottingbrunn creates 17% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 55 away

creates per match

USC Rohrbach
1.23
Kottingbrunn
1.38

allows per match

USC Rohrbach
1.54
Kottingbrunn
1.27

finishing

USC Rohrbach+0.00on par
Kottingbrunn+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

USC Rohrbach ↓

Kottingbrunn →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

USC Rohrbach or draw
58%
USC Rohrbach or Kottingbrunn
74%
Draw or Kottingbrunn
68%

Winning margin

USC Rohrbach wins by 2+
14%
Kottingbrunn wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

USC Rohrbach 1+ goals
71%
USC Rohrbach 2+ goals
36%
USC Rohrbach 3+ goals
13%
Kottingbrunn 1+ goals
77%
Kottingbrunn 2+ goals
43%
Kottingbrunn 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

USC Rohrbach (draw refunded)
44%
Kottingbrunn (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

USC Rohrbach at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.54 · 71 matches

Kottingbrunn away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.27 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

USC Rohrbach attack 1.23 + Kottingbrunn defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.25

Kottingbrunn attack 1.38 + USC Rohrbach defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

USC Rohrbach scores more
32%
level
26%
Kottingbrunn scores more
42%

Kottingbrunn at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Kottingbrunn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USC Rohrbach face Kottingbrunn (Landesliga - Niederosterreich)

Landesliga - Niederosterreich returns with USC Rohrbach hosting Kottingbrunn. Match starts May 2, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

USC Rohrbach host Kottingbrunn at Liese Prokop Sportanlage.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.