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Kottingbrunn vs USC Rohrbach — Landesliga - Niederosterreich 2019

Kottingbrunn
Kottingbrunn
FT
1 – 1
USC Rohrbach
USC Rohrbach
9/8/2023Landesliga - NiederosterreichLandesliga - Niederosterreich · Niederösterreich - 6Stadion Kottingbrunn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Kottingbrunn54%
×Draw25%
USC Rohrbach21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kottingbrunn
1.63
USC Rohrbach
0.92

Kottingbrunn creates 77% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 71 away

creates per match

Kottingbrunn
1.31
USC Rohrbach
1.06

allows per match

Kottingbrunn
0.78
USC Rohrbach
1.94

finishing

Kottingbrunn+0.00on par
USC Rohrbach+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kottingbrunn ↓

USC Rohrbach →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Kottingbrunn or draw
79%
Kottingbrunn or USC Rohrbach
75%
Draw or USC Rohrbach
46%

Winning margin

Kottingbrunn wins by 2+
29%
USC Rohrbach wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Kottingbrunn 1+ goals
80%
Kottingbrunn 2+ goals
48%
Kottingbrunn 3+ goals
22%
USC Rohrbach 1+ goals
60%
USC Rohrbach 2+ goals
23%
USC Rohrbach 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Kottingbrunn (draw refunded)
72%
USC Rohrbach (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kottingbrunn at home — creates 1.31, concedes 0.78 · 55 matches

USC Rohrbach away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.94 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kottingbrunn attack 1.31 + USC Rohrbach defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.63

USC Rohrbach attack 1.06 + Kottingbrunn defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Kottingbrunn scores more
54%
level
25%
USC Rohrbach scores more
21%

Kottingbrunn at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Kottingbrunn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Landesliga - Niederosterreich: Kottingbrunn 1–1 USC Rohrbach

Kottingbrunn and USC Rohrbach drew 1-1 in Landesliga - Niederosterreich on September 8, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Kottingbrunn in Kottingbrunn.