USC Kita 2–0 Bougouni: Result & Stats

USC Kita

FT

2 – 0

Bougouni

5/20/2023

Première Division · Round 18Stade Municipal de Kita

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

USC Kita50%

×Draw30%

Bougouni20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

USC KitaExpected goals in this matchBougouni

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

0.68

USC Kita

1.25

Bougouni

0.68

USC Kita creates 84% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 76 away

0.92

creates per match

0.57

0.79

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

USC Kita

0.92

Bougouni

0.57

allows per match

USC Kita

0.79

Bougouni

1.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

USC Kita+0.00on par

Bougouni+0.00on par

Total goals

Under70
Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No65
Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

USC Kita ↓

Bougouni →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–110%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

57%43%2.5

30%70%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

USC Kita or draw

80%

USC Kita or Bougouni

70%

Draw or Bougouni

50%

Winning margin

USC Kita wins by 2+

23%

Bougouni wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

USC Kita 1+ goals

71%

USC Kita 2+ goals

36%

USC Kita 3+ goals

13%

Bougouni 1+ goals

49%

Bougouni 2+ goals

15%

Bougouni 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

USC Kita (draw refunded)

71%

Bougouni (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

23%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

USC Kita at home — creates 0.92, concedes 0.79 · 66 matches

Bougouni away — creates 0.57, concedes 1.58 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

USC Kita attack 0.92 + Bougouni defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.25

Bougouni attack 0.57 + USC Kita defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

USC Kita scores more

50%

level

30%

Bougouni scores more

20%

USC Kita at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "USC Kita will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff