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USB vs Energie — Championnat National 2019

USB
USB
FT
1 – 0
Energie
Energie
11/18/2021Championnat NationalChampionnat National · Round 3Stade Municipal de Parakou

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

USB36%
×Draw36%
Energie28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

USB
0.85
Energie
0.71

USB creates 20% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 58 away

creates per match

USB
0.53
Energie
0.66

allows per match

USB
0.76
Energie
1.17

finishing

USB+0.00on par
Energie+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Under
  • Under79
  • Over21

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

71%No
  • No71
  • Yes29

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

USB ↓

Energie →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–021%
0–115%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–15%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (21%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
79%21%1.5
46%54%2.5
21%79%3.5
7%93%4.5
2%98%

Double chance

USB or draw
72%
USB or Energie
64%
Draw or Energie
64%

Winning margin

USB wins by 2+
12%
Energie wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

USB 1+ goals
57%
USB 2+ goals
21%
USB 3+ goals
5%
Energie 1+ goals
51%
Energie 2+ goals
16%
Energie 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

USB (draw refunded)
56%
Energie (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
16%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

USB at home — creates 0.53, concedes 0.76 · 17 matches

Energie away — creates 0.66, concedes 1.17 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

USB attack 0.53 + Energie defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 0.85

Energie attack 0.66 + USB defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

USB scores more
36%
level
36%
Energie scores more
28%

USB at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "USB will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: USB vs Energie

USB beat Energie 1-0 in Championnat National on November 18, 2021.

The match was played at Stade Municipal de Parakou in Parakou.