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USB vs Dadjè — Championnat National 2019

USB
USB
FT
0 – 2
Dadjè
Dadjè
1/27/2022Championnat NationalChampionnat National · Round 17Stade Municipal de Parakou

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

USB35%
×Draw34%
Dadjè31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

USB
0.89
Dadjè
0.82

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 106 away

creates per match

USB
0.53
Dadjè
0.89

allows per match

USB
0.76
Dadjè
1.24

finishing

USB+0.00on par
Dadjè+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Under
  • Under75
  • Over25

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

USB ↓

Dadjè →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–018%
0–115%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–16%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (18%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
82%18%1.5
51%49%2.5
25%75%3.5
9%91%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

USB or draw
69%
USB or Dadjè
66%
Draw or Dadjè
65%

Winning margin

USB wins by 2+
12%
Dadjè wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

USB 1+ goals
59%
USB 2+ goals
22%
USB 3+ goals
6%
Dadjè 1+ goals
56%
Dadjè 2+ goals
20%
Dadjè 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

USB (draw refunded)
53%
Dadjè (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

USB at home — creates 0.53, concedes 0.76 · 17 matches

Dadjè away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.24 · 106 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

USB attack 0.53 + Dadjè defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 0.89

Dadjè attack 0.89 + USB defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

USB scores more
35%
level
34%
Dadjè scores more
31%

USB at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "USB will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USB 0 – 2 Dadjè

Dadjè beat USB 2-0 in Championnat National on January 27, 2022.

The match was played at Stade Municipal de Parakou in Parakou.