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Uşak Spor vs Şile Yıldızspor — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Uşak Spor
Uşak Spor
FT
6 – 0
HT: 4 – 0
Şile Yıldızspor
Şile Yıldızspor
11/5/2020Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · 3rd RoundUşak 1 Eylül Stadı

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Uşak Spor73%
×Draw16%
Şile Yıldızspor11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Uşak Spor
2.63
Şile Yıldızspor
0.94

Uşak Spor creates 180% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 3 away

creates per match

Uşak Spor
2.60
Şile Yıldızspor
0.67

allows per match

Uşak Spor
1.20
Şile Yıldızspor
2.67

finishing

Uşak Spor+0.00on par
Şile Yıldızspor+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Uşak Spor ↓

Şile Yıldızspor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–17%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Uşak Spor or draw
89%
Uşak Spor or Şile Yıldızspor
84%
Draw or Şile Yıldızspor
27%

Winning margin

Uşak Spor wins by 2+
51%
Şile Yıldızspor wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Uşak Spor 1+ goals
93%
Uşak Spor 2+ goals
73%
Uşak Spor 3+ goals
48%
Şile Yıldızspor 1+ goals
61%
Şile Yıldızspor 2+ goals
24%
Şile Yıldızspor 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Uşak Spor (draw refunded)
87%
Şile Yıldızspor (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Uşak Spor at home — creates 2.60, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

Şile Yıldızspor away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Uşak Spor attack 2.60 + Şile Yıldızspor defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.63

Şile Yıldızspor attack 0.67 + Uşak Spor defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Uşak Spor scores more
73%
level
16%
Şile Yıldızspor scores more
11%

Uşak Spor at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Uşak Spor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Uşak Spor vs Şile Yıldızspor

Uşak Spor beat Şile Yıldızspor 6-0 in Türkiye Kupası on November 5, 2020.

The match was played at Uşak 1 Eylül Stadı in Uşak.