Uşak Spor 1–1 Nevşehir Belediyespor: Result & Stats

Uşak Spor

Pens

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Nevşehir Belediyespor

10/27/2021

Türkiye Kupası · 3rd RoundUşak 1 Eylül Stadı

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Uşak Spor68%

×Draw18%

Nevşehir Belediyespor14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Uşak SporExpected goals in this matchNevşehir Belediyespor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.30

0.94

Uşak Spor

2.30

Nevşehir Belediyespor

0.94

Uşak Spor creates 145% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 3 away

2.60

creates per match

0.67

1.20

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Uşak Spor

2.60

Nevşehir Belediyespor

0.67

allows per match

Uşak Spor

1.20

Nevşehir Belediyespor

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Uşak Spor+0.00on par

Nevşehir Belediyespor+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Uşak Spor ↓

Nevşehir Belediyespor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Uşak Spor or draw

86%

Uşak Spor or Nevşehir Belediyespor

82%

Draw or Nevşehir Belediyespor

32%

Winning margin

Uşak Spor wins by 2+

44%

Nevşehir Belediyespor wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Uşak Spor 1+ goals

90%

Uşak Spor 2+ goals

67%

Uşak Spor 3+ goals

40%

Nevşehir Belediyespor 1+ goals

61%

Nevşehir Belediyespor 2+ goals

24%

Nevşehir Belediyespor 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Uşak Spor (draw refunded)

83%

Nevşehir Belediyespor (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Uşak Spor at home — creates 2.60, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

Nevşehir Belediyespor away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Uşak Spor attack 2.60 + Nevşehir Belediyespor defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.30

Nevşehir Belediyespor attack 0.67 + Uşak Spor defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Uşak Spor scores more

68%

level

18%

Nevşehir Belediyespor scores more

14%

Uşak Spor at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Uşak Spor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff