Uşak Spor 2–2 Gümüşhanespor: Result & Stats

Uşak Spor

AET

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Gümüşhanespor

10/19/2022

Türkiye Kupası · 3rd RoundUşak 1 Eylül Stadı

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Uşak Spor61%

×Draw23%

Gümüşhanespor16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Uşak SporExpected goals in this matchGümüşhanespor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.80

0.80

Uşak Spor

1.80

Gümüşhanespor

0.80

Uşak Spor creates 125% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

2.60

creates per match

0.40

1.20

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Uşak Spor

2.60

Gümüşhanespor

0.40

allows per match

Uşak Spor

1.20

Gümüşhanespor

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Uşak Spor+0.00on par

Gümüşhanespor+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Uşak Spor ↓

Gümüşhanespor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–16%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Uşak Spor or draw

84%

Uşak Spor or Gümüşhanespor

77%

Draw or Gümüşhanespor

39%

Winning margin

Uşak Spor wins by 2+

35%

Gümüşhanespor wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Uşak Spor 1+ goals

83%

Uşak Spor 2+ goals

54%

Uşak Spor 3+ goals

27%

Gümüşhanespor 1+ goals

55%

Gümüşhanespor 2+ goals

19%

Gümüşhanespor 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Uşak Spor (draw refunded)

79%

Gümüşhanespor (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Uşak Spor at home — creates 2.60, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

Gümüşhanespor away — creates 0.40, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Uşak Spor attack 2.60 + Gümüşhanespor defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.80

Gümüşhanespor attack 0.40 + Uşak Spor defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Uşak Spor scores more

61%

level

23%

Gümüşhanespor scores more

16%

Uşak Spor at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Uşak Spor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff