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Uşak Spor vs Bursaspor — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Uşak Spor
Uşak Spor
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Bursaspor
Bursaspor
10/10/2024Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · 2nd RoundUşak 1 Eylül Stadı

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Uşak Spor52%
×Draw22%
Bursaspor26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Uşak Spor
2.02
Bursaspor
1.39

Uşak Spor creates 45% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 7 away

creates per match

Uşak Spor
2.60
Bursaspor
1.57

allows per match

Uşak Spor
1.20
Bursaspor
1.43

finishing

Uşak Spor+0.00on par
Bursaspor+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Uşak Spor ↓

Bursaspor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Uşak Spor or draw
74%
Uşak Spor or Bursaspor
78%
Draw or Bursaspor
48%

Winning margin

Uşak Spor wins by 2+
30%
Bursaspor wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Uşak Spor 1+ goals
87%
Uşak Spor 2+ goals
60%
Uşak Spor 3+ goals
33%
Bursaspor 1+ goals
75%
Bursaspor 2+ goals
40%
Bursaspor 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Uşak Spor (draw refunded)
66%
Bursaspor (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Uşak Spor at home — creates 2.60, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

Bursaspor away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.43 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Uşak Spor attack 2.60 + Bursaspor defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 2.02

Bursaspor attack 1.57 + Uşak Spor defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Uşak Spor scores more
52%
level
22%
Bursaspor scores more
26%

Uşak Spor at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Uşak Spor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Türkiye Kupası: Uşak Spor 0–1 Bursaspor

Bursaspor beat Uşak Spor 1-0 in Türkiye Kupası on October 10, 2024.

The match was played at Uşak 1 Eylül Stadı in Uşak.