USA W 8–0 Paraguay W: Result & Stats

USA W

FT

8 – 0

HT: 5 – 0

Paraguay W

9/21/2021

Friendlies Women · Friendlies 1TQL Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

USA W92%

×Draw6%

Paraguay W2%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

USA WExpected goals in this matchParaguay W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.42

0.32

USA W

3.42

Paraguay W

0.32

USA W creates 969% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 11 away

3.21

creates per match

0.36

0.29

allows per match

3.64

creates per match

USA W

3.21

Paraguay W

0.36

allows per match

USA W

0.29

Paraguay W

3.64

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

USA W+0.00on par

Paraguay W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No74
Yes26

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

USA W ↓

Paraguay W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–11%

0–20%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–13%

1–20%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–015%

2–15%

2–21%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–017%

3–15%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–014%

4–15%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (17%) · grid covers 79% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

48%52%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

USA W or draw

98%

USA W or Paraguay W

94%

Draw or Paraguay W

8%

Winning margin

USA W wins by 2+

78%

Paraguay W wins by 2+

0%

Team goals

USA W 1+ goals

97%

USA W 2+ goals

85%

USA W 3+ goals

64%

Paraguay W 1+ goals

27%

Paraguay W 2+ goals

4%

Paraguay W 3+ goals

0%

Draw no bet

USA W (draw refunded)

98%

Paraguay W (draw refunded)

2%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

USA W at home — creates 3.21, concedes 0.29 · 52 matches

Paraguay W away — creates 0.36, concedes 3.64 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

USA W attack 3.21 + Paraguay W defence 3.64 → ÷2 → 3.42

Paraguay W attack 0.36 + USA W defence 0.29 → ÷2 → 0.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 92%?"

USA W scores more

92%

level

6%

Paraguay W scores more

2%

USA W at 92% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 92% does not mean "USA W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff