USA W 3–1 Iceland W: Result & Stats

USA W

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Iceland W

S. Smith 88'

J. Shaw 85'

A. Thompson 39'

S. Magnúsdóttir 56'

10/24/2024

Friendlies Women · Friendlies 1Q2 Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

USA W70%

×Draw19%

Iceland W12%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

USA WExpected goals in this matchIceland W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.19

0.77

USA W

2.19

Iceland W

0.77

USA W creates 184% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 12 away

3.21

creates per match

1.25

0.29

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

USA W

3.21

Iceland W

1.25

allows per match

USA W

0.29

Iceland W

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

USA W+0.00on par

Iceland W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

USA W ↓

Iceland W →

0–05%

0–14%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1–011%

1–19%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2–013%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–09%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–05%

4–14%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

USA W or draw

88%

USA W or Iceland W

81%

Draw or Iceland W

30%

Winning margin

USA W wins by 2+

45%

Iceland W wins by 2+

Team goals

USA W 1+ goals

89%

USA W 2+ goals

64%

USA W 3+ goals

37%

Iceland W 1+ goals

54%

Iceland W 2+ goals

18%

Iceland W 3+ goals

Draw no bet

USA W (draw refunded)

85%

Iceland W (draw refunded)

15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

USA W at home — creates 3.21, concedes 0.29 · 52 matches

Iceland W away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.17 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

USA W attack 3.21 + Iceland W defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 2.19

Iceland W attack 1.25 + USA W defence 0.29 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 70%?"

USA W scores more

70%

level

19%

Iceland W scores more

12%

USA W at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "USA W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

39'

A. Thompson↳ S. Coffey

46'

B. Ágústsdóttir← H. Antonsdóttir

46'

H. Halldórsdóttir← S. Jessen

46'

G. Árnadóttir← G. Viggósdóttir

56'

S. Magnúsdóttir↳ G. Árnadóttir

65'

Á. Halldórsdóttir← A. Andradóttir

66'

J. Shaw← L. Horan

66'

Y. Ryan← M. Swanson

66'

C. Krueger← E. Fox

66'

K. Tryggvadóttir← S. Jónsdóttir

72'

H. Hershfelt← S. Coffey

72'

S. Smith← L. Williams

85'

K. Vilhjálmsdóttir← S. Magnúsdóttir

85'

J. Shaw↳ C. Krueger

88'

S. Smith

USA

Iceland

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: E. Hayes

66'▲J. Shaw←▼L. Horan

66'▲Y. Ryan←▼M. Swanson

66'▲C. Krueger←▼E. Fox

72'▲H. Hershfelt←▼S. Coffey

72'▲S. Smith←▼L. Williams

USA W substitutes

15Shaw24Ryan20Krueger19Hershfelt11Smith3Albert8Mace2Sanchez12Sams26Sears13Moultrie18Murphy

Manager: Þ. Halldórsson

46'▲B. Ágústsdóttir←▼H. Antonsdóttir

46'▲H. Halldórsdóttir←▼S. Jessen

46'▲G. Árnadóttir←▼G. Viggósdóttir

65'▲Á. Halldórsdóttir←▼A. Andradóttir

66'▲K. Tryggvadóttir←▼S. Jónsdóttir

85'▲K. Vilhjálmsdóttir←▼S. Magnúsdóttir

Iceland W substitutes

2Ágústsdóttir21Halldórsdóttir20Árnadóttir8Halldórsdóttir15Tryggvadóttir10Vilhjálmsdóttir17Viðarsdóttir5Ásgeirsdóttir13Scheving14Eiríksdóttir1Rúnarsdóttir6Sigurðardóttir

Friendlies Women: USA W 3–1 Iceland W

USA W beat Iceland W 3-1 in Friendlies Women on October 24, 2024.

Goals: A. Thompson (39'), S. Magnúsdóttir (56'), J. Shaw (85'), S. Smith (88').

The match was played at Q2 Stadium in Austin, Texas.

USA W vs Iceland W — Friendlies Women 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Friendlies Women: USA W 3–1 Iceland W