USA W 2–1 Germany W: Result & Stats

USA W

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Germany W

M. Pugh 56'

S. Smith 54'

J. Brand 18'

11/12/2022

Friendlies Women · Friendlies 1Red Bull Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

USA W60%

×Draw20%

Germany W20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

USA WExpected goals in this matchGermany W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.25

1.22

USA W

2.25

Germany W

1.22

USA W creates 84% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 7 away

3.21

creates per match

2.14

0.29

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

USA W

3.21

Germany W

2.14

allows per match

USA W

0.29

Germany W

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

USA W+0.00on par

Germany W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

USA W ↓

Germany W →

0–03%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1–07%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

USA W or draw

80%

USA W or Germany W

80%

Draw or Germany W

40%

Winning margin

USA W wins by 2+

38%

Germany W wins by 2+

Team goals

USA W 1+ goals

89%

USA W 2+ goals

65%

USA W 3+ goals

39%

Germany W 1+ goals

70%

Germany W 2+ goals

34%

Germany W 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

USA W (draw refunded)

75%

Germany W (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

USA W at home — creates 3.21, concedes 0.29 · 52 matches

Germany W away — creates 2.14, concedes 1.29 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

USA W attack 3.21 + Germany W defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 2.25

Germany W attack 2.14 + USA W defence 0.29 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 60%?"

USA W scores more

60%

level

20%

Germany W scores more

20%

USA W at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "USA W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'

S. Kleinherne

18'

J. Brand

33'

C. Hagel← L. Oberdorf

46'

A. Schult← A. Berger

46'

L. Magull← L. Lattwein

54'

S. Smith

56'

M. Pugh

62'

C. Simon← S. Kleinherne

78'

S. Doorsoun← N. Anyomi

78'

P. Krumbiegel← J. Brand

83'

T. Kornieck← A. Morgan

83'

K. Mewis← A. Sullivan

84'

K. Hendrich

90'

H. Mace← S. Smith

USA

Germany

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

Smith

Manager: V. Andonovski

83'▲T. Kornieck←▼A. Morgan

83'▲K. Mewis←▼A. Sullivan

90'▲H. Mace←▼S. Smith

USA W substitutes

20Kornieck22Mewis5Mace7Hatch6Rodman21Franch3Cook15Rapinoe18Murphy14Coffey19Dunn2Sanchez

Manager: M. Voss-Tecklenburg

33'▲C. Hagel←▼L. Oberdorf

46'▲A. Schult←▼A. Berger

46'▲L. Magull←▼L. Lattwein

62'▲C. Simon←▼S. Kleinherne

78'▲S. Doorsoun←▼N. Anyomi

78'▲P. Krumbiegel←▼J. Brand

Germany W substitutes

26Hagel12Schult20Magull2Simon23Doorsoun27Krumbiegel19Bühl17Rauch1Frohms10Freigang8Rall5Feldkamp

Match Recap: USA W vs Germany W

USA W beat Germany W 2-1 in Friendlies Women on November 12, 2022.

Goals: J. Brand (18'), S. Smith (54'), M. Pugh (56').

The match was played at Red Bull Arena in Harrison, New Jersey.

USA W vs Germany W — Friendlies Women 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: USA W vs Germany W